Thursday, 29 May 2014

The Foreign visions

Obama West Point speech in full with analysis.

"Just because we have the best hammer does not mean that every problem is a nail": Watch President Obama's address in full
President Barack Obama has delivered a key foreign policy address. Here's the speech in full - with analysis of key passages by BBC North America Editor Mark Mardell.

Good morning. Thank you, General Caslen, for that introduction. To General Trainor, General Clarke, and the faculty and staff at West Point - you have been outstanding stewards of this proud institution, and excellent mentors for the newest officers in the United States Army. I'd like to acknowledge the Army's leadership - Secretary McHugh and General Odierno, as well as Senator Jack Reed - a proud graduate of West Point himself.

To the class of 2014, I congratulate you on taking your place on the Long Gray Line. Among you is the first all-female command team: Erin Mauldin and Austen Boroff. In Calla Glavin, you have a Rhodes Scholar, and Josh Herbeck proves that West Point accuracy extends beyond the three point line. To the entire class, let me reassure you in these final hours at West Point: as Commander-in-Chief, I hereby absolve all cadets who are on restriction for minor conduct offences. Let me just say that nobody ever did that for me when I was in school.

I know you join me in extending a word of thanks to your families. Joe DeMoss, whose son James is graduating, spoke for many parents when he wrote me a letter about the sacrifices you have made. "Deep inside," he wrote, "we want to explode with pride at what they are committing to do in the service of our country." Like several graduates, James is a combat veteran. And I would like to ask all of us here today to stand and pay tribute - not only to the veterans among us, but to the more than 2.5 million Americans who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan, and their families. It is a particularly useful time for America to reflect on those who have sacrificed so much for our freedom - for you are the first class to graduate since 9/11 who may not be sent into combat in Iraq or Afghanistan.


Mark Mardell:That got a big cheer - and the president knows the country too is happy that he has ended America's long wars. But he has to balance this - many also think their country not only has a right, it has a duty, to shape events around the globe.


When I first spoke at West Point in 2009, we still had more than 100,000 troops in Iraq. We were preparing to surge in Afghanistan. Our counterterrorism efforts were focused on al-Qaeda's core leadership. And our nation was just beginning a long climb out of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Four and a half years later, the landscape has changed. We have removed our troops from Iraq. We are winding down our war in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda's leadership in the border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been decimated, and Osama Bin Laden is no more. Through it all, we have refocused our investments in a key source of American strength: a growing economy that can provide opportunity here at home.

In fact, by most measures, America has rarely been stronger relative to the rest of the world. Those who argue otherwise - who suggest that America is in decline, or has seen its global leadership slip away - are either misreading history or engaged in partisan politics. Think about it. Our military has no peer. The odds of a direct threat against us by any nation are low, and do not come close to the dangers we faced during the Cold War. Meanwhile, our economy remains the most dynamic on Earth; our businesses the most innovative. Each year, we grow more energy independent. From Europe to Asia, we are the hub of alliances unrivalled in the history of nations. America continues to attract striving immigrants. The values of our founding inspire leaders in parliaments and new movements in public squares around the globe. And when a typhoon hits the Philippines, or girls are kidnapped in Nigeria, or masked men occupy a building in Ukraine - it is America that the world looks to for help. The United States is the one indispensable nation. That has been true for the century passed, and will likely be true for the century to come.

Mark Mardell's analysis: "This was obviously a fairly difficult speech"
Mark Mardell: This is a hard speech for Mr Obama to make - he has to do it because there have been so many attacks on his foreign policy, against a background of feeling that the US isn't the power it once was. So he's saying the country is as great as ever, and lists achievements since he's been in office.


But the world is changing with accelerating speed. This presents opportunity, but also new dangers. We know all too well, after 9/11, just how technology and globalisation has put power once reserved for states in the hands of the individual, raising the capacity of terrorists to do harm. Russia's aggression toward former Soviet states unnerves capitals in Europe, while China's economic rise and military reach worries its neighbours. From Brazil to India, rising middle classes compete with our own, and governments seek a greater say in global forums. And even as developing nations embrace democracy and market economies, 24-hour news and pervasive social media makes it impossible to ignore sectarian conflicts, failing states and popular uprisings that might have received only passing notice a generation ago. It will be your generation's task to respond to this new world. The question we face - the question you will face - is not whether America will lead, but how we will lead, not just to secure our peace and prosperity, but also to extend peace and prosperity around the globe.


Mark Mardell: So no doubt here - Mr Obama is not abandoning America's leading role in the world. He is endorsing the view that his country has a special, almost mystical, mission.


This question isn't new. At least since George Washington served as Commander-in-Chief, there have been those who warned against foreign entanglements that do not touch directly on our security or economic well-being. Today, according to self-described realists, conflicts in Syria or Ukraine or the Central African Republic are not ours to solve. Not surprisingly, after costly wars and continuing challenges at home, that view is shared by many Americans. A different view, from interventionists on the left and right, says we ignore these conflicts at our own peril; that America's willingness to apply force around the world is the ultimate safeguard against chaos, and America's failure to act in the face of Syrian brutality or Russian provocations not only violates our conscience, but invites escalating aggression in the future.

Mark Mardell's analysis: "This is very typically Obama the intellectual, the professor"
Mark Mardell:This is very Barack Obama as the professorial president, thoughtfully laying out two paths, pointing out that they each have intellectual merit. He is, of course, about to discover a synthesis.


Each side can point to history to support its claims. But I believe neither view fully speaks to the demands of this moment. It is absolutely true that in the 21st Century, American isolationism is not an option. If nuclear materials are not secure, that could pose a danger in American cities. As the Syrian civil war spills across borders, the capacity of battle-hardened groups to come after us increases. Regional aggression that goes unchecked - in southern Ukraine, the South China Sea, or anywhere else in the world - will ultimately impact our allies, and could draw in our military. Beyond these narrow rationales, I believe we have a real stake - an abiding self-interest - in making sure our children grow up in a world where school-girls are not kidnapped; where individuals aren't slaughtered because of tribe or faith or political beliefs. I believe that a world of greater freedom and tolerance is not only a moral imperative - it also helps keep us safe.

Mark Mardell's analysis: "Of course it is not really a synthesis"
Mark Mardell: Actually it isn't really a synthesis - he comes down pretty heavily against any notion of isolationism. He doesn't even give room to the view of many on the left that it is wrong, a new form of imperialism, for the US to impose its will on the world.


But to say that we have an interest in pursuing peace and freedom beyond our borders is not to say that every problem has a military solution. Since World War Two, some of our most costly mistakes came not from our restraint, but from our willingness to rush into military adventures - without thinking through the consequences; without building international support and legitimacy for our action, or levelling with the American people about the sacrifice required. Tough talk draws headlines, but war rarely conforms to slogans. As General Eisenhower, someone with hard-earned knowledge on this subject, said at this ceremony in 1947: "War is mankind's most tragic and stupid folly; to seek or advise its deliberate provocation is a black crime against all men."

Like Eisenhower, this generation of men and women in uniform know all too well the wages of war. That includes those of you at West Point. Four of the service-members who stood in the audience when I announced the surge of our forces in Afghanistan gave their lives in that effort. More were wounded. I believe America's security demanded those deployments. But I am haunted by those deaths. I am haunted by those wounds. And I would betray my duty to you, and to the country we love, if I sent you into harm's way simply because I saw a problem somewhere in the world that needed fixing, or because I was worried about critics who think military intervention is the only way for America to avoid looking weak.

Here's my bottom line - America must always lead on the world stage. If we don't, no one else will. The military that you have joined is, and always will be, the backbone of that leadership. But US military action cannot be the only - or even primary - component of our leadership in every instance. Just because we have the best hammer does not mean that every problem is a nail.


Mark Mardell: Mr Obama's paradox is that he is commander-in-chief of the most powerful military ever known, in a country that doesn't want to go to war. So he uses a simple saying to reinforce his point - just because you can fight, and would probably win, it doesn't mean you have to do so.


And because the costs associated with military action are so high, you should expect every civilian leader - and especially your commander-in-chief - to be clear about how that awesome power should be used.

Let me spend the rest of my time, then, describing my vision for how the United States of America, and our military, should lead in the years to come.


President Obama: ''America should never ask permission to protect our people''
First, let me repeat a principle I put forward at the outset of my presidency - the United States will use military force, unilaterally if necessary, when our core interests demand it - when our people are threatened; when our livelihood is at stake; or when the security of our allies is in danger. In these circumstances, we still need to ask tough questions about whether our action is proportional, effective and just. International opinion matters. But America should never ask permission to protect our people, our homeland, or our way of life. On the other hand, when issues of global concern that do not pose a direct threat to the United States are at stake - when crises arise that stir our conscience or push the world in a more dangerous direction - then the threshold for military action must be higher. In such circumstances, we should not go it alone. Instead, we must mobilise allies and partners to take collective action. We must broaden our tools to include diplomacy and development; sanctions and isolation; appeals to international law and - if just, necessary, and effective - multilateral military action. We must do so because collective action in these circumstances is more likely to succeed, more likely to be sustained, and less likely to lead to costly mistakes.


Mark Mardell: So this is the Obama doctrine - we will fight for core interests, and for allies. But not just to prevent bad stuff from happening. At least not that alone. This has a potential danger - it is a signal to potential foes that while they have got to leave Lithuania and Latvia alone, the US won't fight for Ukraine or Georgia. Likewise Japan can rest easy. But not Vietnam. It makes sense but drawing red lines too clearly means people know where they can take action with impunity.

President Barack Obama: "We must shift our counter-terrorism strategy"
This leads to my second point - for the foreseeable future, the most direct threat to America at home and abroad remains terrorism. But a strategy that involves invading every country that harbours terrorist networks is naive and unsustainable. I believe we must shift our counterterrorism strategy - drawing on the successes and shortcomings of our experience in Iraq and Afghanistan - to more effectively partner with countries where terrorist networks seek a foothold. This reflects the fact that today's principal threat no longer comes from a centralised al-Qaeda leadership. Instead, it comes from decentralised al-Qaeda affiliates and extremists, many with agendas focused in the countries where they operate. This lessens the possibility of large-scale 9/11-style attacks against the homeland, but heightens the danger to US personnel overseas, as we saw in Benghazi or less defensible targets, as we saw in a shopping mall in Nairobi. We need a strategy that matches this diffuse threat; one that expands our reach without sending forces that stretch our military thin, or stir up local resentments.

Empowering partners is a large part of what we've done in Afghanistan. Together with our allies, America struck huge blows against al-Qaeda core, and pushed back against an insurgency that threatened to overrun the country. But sustaining this progress depends on the ability of Afghans to do the job. That's why we trained hundreds of thousands of Afghan soldiers and police. Earlier this spring, those forces secured an election in which Afghans voted for the first democratic transfer of power in their history. At the end of this year, a new Afghan president will be in office, and America's combat mission will be over.

Now, as we move to a train-and-advise mission in Afghanistan, our reduced presence there will allow us to more effectively address emerging threats in the Middle East and North Africa. Earlier this year, I asked my national security team to develop a plan for a network of partnerships from South Asia to the Sahel. Today, as part of this effort, I am calling on Congress to support a new Counter-Terrorism Partnerships Fund of up to $5bn, which will allow us to train, build capacity, and facilitate partner countries on the front lines. These resources will give us flexibility to fulfil different missions, including training security forces in Yemen who have gone on the offensive against al-Qaeda; supporting a multinational force to keep the peace in Somalia; working with European allies to train a functioning security force and border patrol in Libya; and facilitating French operations in Mali.

A critical focus of this effort will be the ongoing crisis in Syria. As frustrating as it is, there are no easy answers - no military solution that can eliminate the terrible suffering any time soon. As president, I made a decision that we should not put American troops into the middle of this increasingly sectarian civil war, and I believe that is the right decision. But that does not mean we shouldn't help the Syrian people stand up against a dictator who bombs and starves his people. And in helping those who fight for the right of all Syrians to choose their own future, we also push back against the growing number of extremists who find safe haven in the chaos.
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